1. 미국 6월 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 의사록 경제 및 고용 관련 주요 내용
1) 구성원 전원이 제시한 동일한 의견
① 견제는 완만하지만 지속적으로 확장세.
(Participants noted that economic activity had continued to expand at a modest pace.)
② 긴축된 신용 환경이 경제, 고용, 물가 하방 압력으로 작용할 수 있으나 그 정도와 범위는 불명확.
(They commented that tighter credit conditions for households and businesses were likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. However, participants agreed that the extent of these effects remained uncertain.)
③ 연말까지 경기는 대체로 둔화될 전망.
(Participants generally judged that growth would be subdued over the remainder of this year.)
④ 물가 안정을 위해서는 경제 성장률의 추세 성장률 하회, 고용 시장 완화가 필요.
(Participants expected that a period of below-trend growth in real GDP and some softening in labor market conditions would be needed to bring aggregate supply and aggregate demand into better balance and reduce inflationary pressures sufficiently to return inflation to 2 percent over time.)
⑤ 구성원 전원, 소비 부문은 예상보다 견조.
(Participants generally noted that consumer spending so far this year had been stronger than expected.)
⑥ 고용시장은 여전히 강력하지만 수급 균형에는 진전이 있음.
(They noted some signs that supply and demand in the labor market were coming into better balance,)
2) 다수의 구성원이 제시한 의견
① 기준금리 인상 사이클에 진입한 지 1년이 넘었으나 신용 환경은 예상보다 크게 강화되지 않았음.
(Several participants mentioned that credit conditions had not appeared to have tightened significantly beyond what would be expected in response to the monetary policy actions taken since early last year.)
② 국내 총소득(GDI. 부진)과 총 생산(GDP, 호조) 차이에 주목. 총 생산 모멘텀은 생각보다 강하지 않을 수 있음.
(Several participants pointed out that recent GDP readings had been stronger than expected earlier in the year, while gross domestic income (GDI) readings had been weak. Of those who noted the discrepancy between GDP and GDI, most suggested that economic momentum may not be as strong as indicated by the GDP readings.)
3) 일부 구성원이 제시한 의견
① 높은 금리가 주택 부문에 미치는 영향은 전환점을 돌고 있는 것으로 판단.
(Some participants remarked that the effect of high interest rates on the housing sector appeared to be bottoming out, with home sales, builder sentiment, and new construction all having improved a little since the start of the year.)
② 고용 증가율이 임금 상승세만큼 강하지 않을 가능성 있음.
(Some participants pointed out that payroll gains had remained robust but noted that some other measures of employment suggested that job growth may have been weaker than indicated by payroll employment.)
4) 소수의 구성원이 제시한 의견
① 강력한 소비는 코로나 기간 축적된 초과 저축에 상당 부분 기인. 높은 물가 지속, 저소득층의 저축 고갈 고려 시 소비 환경은 점자 제약적으로 변화할 것.
(A few participants mentioned that while, overall, the household sector still retained much of the excess savings it had accumulated during the pandemic, there were signs that consumers were facing increasingly tighter budget constraints, given high inflation and, especially for low-income households, depleted savings.)
2. 미국 6월 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 의사록 정책 및 물가 관련 주요 내용
1) 구성원 전원이 제시한 동일한 의견
① 공급망 문제가 해결되고 있음에도 최근 근원 물가 둔화 속도는 예상 대비 매우 느린 편.
(Participants observed that although core goods inflation had moderated since the middle of last year, it had slowed less rapidly than expected in recent months, despite data and reports from business contacts indicating that supply chain constraints had continued to ease.)
② 빠르고 강한 긴축 통화정책이 누적되면서 경기 하방 압력이 예상보다 클 수 있고, 신용 긴축 효과도 더 커질 가능성.
(Regarding downside risks to economic activity, participants noted the possibility that the cumulative and rapid tightening of monetary policy would eventually affect economic activity more than expected, and that the additional effects of the tightening of bank credit conditions could prove more substantial than anticipated.)
③ 연준 자산 축소는 계획대로 진행하는 것에 동의.
(All participants agreed that it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings, as described in its previously announced Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet.)
④ 향후 정책 결정은 발표되는 데이터에 기반하여 결정할 것.
(Participants agreed that their policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks.)
2) 대다수의 구성원이 제시한 의견
① 연내 추가 기준금리 인상 적절.
(Almost all participants noted that in their economic projections that they judged that additional increases in the target federal funds rate during 2023 would be appropriate.)
② 이번 회의에서는 기준금리를 동결하는 것이 적절, 또는 수용 가능한 결정.
(Almost all participants judged it appropriate or acceptable to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent at this meeting.)
③ 기준금리 동결을 통해 그동안의 정책 효과를 지켜보는 것이 적절.
(Most of these participants observed that leaving the target range unchanged at this meeting would allow them more time to assess the economy’s progress toward the Committee’s goals of maximum employment and price stability.)
3) 일부 구성원이 제시한 의견
① 주택 물가 둔화 추세는 이어질 것. 몇몇(A few) 구성원, 낮은 판매용 주택 재고, 견조한 수요 등 감안하면 주택 가격 재 상승 가능성도 배제할 수 없음.
(Some participants noted the recent moderation in housing services inflation and expected this trend to continue. However, a few participants pointed to upside risks to the outlook for housing services inflation associated with near-record low inventories of homes for sale, solid housing demand, and less-than-expected deceleration recently in measures of rents for leases signed by new tenants.)
② 주택 제외 근원 서비스 물가는 둔화 기미가 거의 보이지 않는 상황.
(Some participants remarked that core nonhousing services inflation had shown few signs of slowing in the past few months.)
③ 목표 수준을 크게 상회하는 물가, 강력한 고용과 소비 지속 등으로 장기 기대인플레이션은 적절하게 고정되지 못할 수 있음.
(Regarding risks to inflation, with inflation remaining well above the Committee’s longer-run goal, some participants mentioned the possibility that longer-term inflation expectations could become unanchored, particularly in light of stronger-than-expected consumer demand and a still-tight labor market.)
④ 물가와 고용 상황을 고려하면 이번 회의에서 추가 인상도 지지 가능.
(Some participants indicated that they favored raising the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported such a proposal.)
4) 소수의 구성원이 제시한 의견
① 재무부 국채 발행 증가에 따른 채권 금리 상승 + RRP 잔고 감소 전망.
(A few participants noted that there could be some upward pressure on money market rates in the near term as the Treasury issued more bills to meet expenditures and return the balance in the TGA to the Treasury’s preferred level. Those participants observed that upward pressure on money market rates relative to the rate offered on the ON RRP facility could lead to a decline in usage of the facility.)
3. 향후 리스크 요인
1) 대다수의 구성원이 제시한 의견: 고정되지 않을 수 있는 기대인플레이션
2) 일부 구성원이 제시한 의견: 경기 하방 압력 및 실업률 상승 위험, 은행 리스크로 인한 경기 및 신용 위축
3) 소수의 구성원이 제시한 의견: 상업용 부동산 침체
